In 2009 I was keynote speaker on an international conference about New Alternative Solutions in Handling Claims and I took the liberty to also put claims into a future perspective. With the ongoing evolution of Road Safety and Vehicle safety the number of claims and the severity will reduce.
I mentioned many examples of improved infrastructure, technical progress in various areas, Sweden’s “Vision Zero”, etc. Eventually ending with only a fraction of the current claims volume…
So far stats are supporting my predictions. For the EU since the last few years and for the US and UK already for a decade the trend is downwards.
Motor insurance in the EU means € 134bn premium (GWP, 30% of non-life insurance business) with € 97bn claims paid (source: Insurance Europe, February 2014). Zero will not happen but let’s say 60-80% claims reduction. That corresponds with € 80-110bn premium.
If this is a roadmap for the next 10-20 years we will have some challenges to deal with. Also for related business like bodyshops. Or will replacing business come up?